IDBI Bank updated ....

on 01.10.2010 the combined volume on IDBI bank crossed 97.15 lakh  on exchanges
BSE 24.17 lakh weighted avg price Rs157.62 closing at Rs 158.50 up Rs 6.1 or 4 pc
NSE 72.98 lakh weighted avg price Rs157.36 closing at Rs 158.45 up Rs 6.05 or 3.97 pc
many brokers and operators went short when first bump 2.5 up in price occured on mass buy at 11 am and were buying from market at flat price at 2.25 -2.5 pc up
http://www.bseindia.com/bseplus/StockReach/AdvanceStockReach.aspx?scripcode=500116


then came the next bump of 2 pc at 3 PM when more brokers / operators went short on share in F&O the market closed at 160 .45 today which is an uptick
http://www.nseindia.com/marketinfo/fo/foquote.jsp?key=FUTSTKIDBI28OCT2010--01OCT2010&symbol=IDBI&flag=1#

IDBI bank is the only PSU bank which is trading at nominal premia to declared book value and discount to actual book value considering the unrealised proft of Rs 79 per share in value of investments

In short if those who hold share in IDBI Bank understand the intrinsic value of the share and hold tight on it without fear of minor blip in the market price of share then the price shall move up and reach the intrinsic value
for latest updates on quarter / half year ended 30 september 2010
http://www.moneycontrol.com/video/news/idbi-bank-q2-net-profitat-rs-429-cr_495129.html

on 29.10.2010 the combined volume on IDBI bank crossed 97.15 lakh on exchanges
BSE 37.78 lakh W avg price Rs182.1 closing at Rs 180.65 up Rs 0.22 or 0.11 pc with high of 188.40
NSE 123.9 lakh W avg price Rs182.1 closing at Rs 179.90 down Rs 0.25 or 0.14 pc with high of 189.90
http://www.bseindia.com/bseplus/StockReach/AdvanceStockReach.aspx?scripcode=500116

2010VP23 Madras Cements

Madras Cements, a Ramco Group company is from South India started in 1987,
As on 31 march 2010 it is the sixth largest cement producing company in India having the capacity to manufacture 10.49 million tons per annum.

R R Nagar, Tamil Nadu (1.5 MTPA), Jayanthipuram, Andra Pradesh (3.65 MTPA), Alathiyur, Tamil Nadu (3.05 MTPA), Ariyalur, Tamil Nadu (2.0 MTPA), Mathod, Karnataka (0.29 MTPA)http://www.madrascements.com/mcl/Fact1.htm

It also generates revenue from Wind Mills the capacity of the Wind Farms owned by madras cements situated at Muppandal, Poolavadi, Pushpathur, Oothumalai and Mathodu has risen to 185.59 MW, comprising of 262 Wind Energy Generators http://www.madrascements.com/mcl/History.htm


The company uses the most advanced technology to manufacture cement. Madras Cements is mainly involved in the manufacture of Portland cement. Other than this, the company also produces dry mortar products and ready mix concrete. Madras Cements uses the modern dry process technology for all its expansion projects while the dust extraction and suppression system is used to control the fugitive emissions.

 
Future expansion plans in implementation
 
The company is setting up a 2 MTPA cement unit at Ariyalur, Tamilnadu at an

estimated cost of Rs 630 crore (for plant alone) which is slated to be commissioned by June 2011
The company has decided to invest in captive thermal power plants in cement plants to meet the plants’ electrical energy requirements. it has been decided to put up a 60 MW thermal power plant costing Rs.200 crores at Ariyalur and a 25 MW thermal power plant costing Rs.110 crores. at R R Nagar.

Financials as on 31 03 2010
The total paid up capital is Rs 23.80crore consisting shares of Re 1 each
the book value of share is Rs 65.5 per share (P/BV of 1.77)
as against the net worth of Rs 1558 crore the company has long term borrowing of Rs 2566 crore

The performance during the year 2009-10 was as follows
Turnover Rs.2825 crore
EBIDTA Rs.878 crore ( OPM 31.1 pc)
Interest Rs. 151 crore
Depreciation  Rs.196 crore
Income Tax Rs.177 crore
N PAT Rs 354 crore (NPM 12.5 pc)
EPS 14.87 (PE 7.56 at CMP 112.5)

Valuation

The valuation of madras cements is as follows

the current replacement value  for 10.5 MTPA installed capacity of cement is Rs 5512 crore
 (Rs 525 cr a MTPA )
the current replacement value for 186 MW wind farm is around Rs 930 crore
( Rs 5 cr a MW value realised by madras cement in recent sale )
the market price of investment in group companies is Rs120 crore
making a gross valuation of Rs 6562 crore as reduced by debt Rs 2566 crore
give a net valuation of Rs 3996 crore and further the company is adding investment worth Rs 950 crore
as against which the market capital is Rs 2678 crore

at the current market price of Rs. 112.5
the stock is trading at a discount of 33 percent to current intrinsic value of Rs 3996crore
and at discount of ** percent on the value ** on the capacity of cement and power under expansion
and at PE of  7.56 (2009-10)
leaving room for futher appreciation

Check out the interest of smart investors in stock


Promotors hold 42 percent of which 5 percent is encumbered / pledged
of the promotors Rajapalyam Mills Limited hold 13.83 percent ( valued Rs 370 crore)
and Ramco Industries Limited hold 20.72 percent ( valued Rs 554 crore)

Mutual funds & financial institutions hold 7.42 per cent of paid up capital
Government of Tamilnadu holds 3.36 per cent of paid up capital
Insurance companies holds 9.71 per cent of paid up capital
Foreign financial institutions holds 8.15 per cent of paid up capital
Bodies corporates holds 7.78 per cent of paid up capital
HNI holds 6.36 per cent of paid up capital

leaving 15.19 per cent with General public
who constitutes 97 percent of number of total no of shareholders 30160

tail lamp :
promotors is likely to make a preferential allotment of Rs 300 crore to meet the capital requirments of Rs 950 crore

Sector ideal for contra value pick

Sectors ideal for contra value picking at this juncture
 
Sector       Cement    Engineering    Media    Utilities
Apr '10     5,116.50   22,103.60   5,166.60  10,243.60

May '10    4,894.70   20,607.80   4,825.50   9,907.50

Jun '10     4,969.60   21,827.50    5,368.00   9,984.10

Jul '10      4,880.70   21,657.20   5,348.10   9,851.10

Aug '10    4,860.50   21,083.90   5,484.10   9,225.10

Sep '10    4,969.80   21,851.80   4,991.20   9,289.10

Reduction in
mutual fund
holdings            2.87     1.14     3.39      9.32

The above sectors may have lost lustre due to some reason which  when scenario changes shall come back to limelight

it may be price pressure in cement sector , slow growth and long gestation period in execution / capacity addition in engineering and utilities sector, overvaluation in media sector

ContraPick 01 India Cements

Introduction
-------------
India Cements (BSE 530005 NSE INDIACEM )is one of the well known cement companies in south India was set up in the year 1946.
The first plant of India Cements was built in the year 1949 in the province of Sankarnagar in the state of Tamil Nadu. Over the years the number of plants has been increased to seven which are located in two
state i.,  Andhra Pradesh (Yeramguntla, Chilamkur, Vishnupuram, Malkapur) and Tamil Nadu. (Sankar Nagar, Dalavoi, Sankari)
http://www.indiacements.co.in/

It is the largest producer of cement in the southern part of India with installed capacity of 14 MTPA as on 31 March 2010
http://www.indiacements.co.in/areports/pressrelease.pdf
the company has a market share of around 28% in the states of South India. It has aiming to increase the market share to around 35% over the next few years.
the company has vast limestone resource is optimization of the existing plants.
the company has its regional offices in all the states of South India and also in Maharashtra.and  around 10,000 stockists who distribute products throughout india
http://www.indiacements.co.in/Company%20profile.htm
Sankar Sakthi, Raasi Gold and Coromandel King: are the brands of cement have that high strength in them to meet the requirements of the infrastructure and development sector water resistant even in case of the rainy season. The cost of the brand is also affordable which make them very much preferred by the consumers all over the country.

The paid up equity share capital of the Company has increased to Rs.307.18 crore as on 31st March, 2010 comprising of 30.71 crore equity shares of Rs.10/- each and the book value stand at Rs 113.53 per share
The company has commitment to issue 1.1 crore shares to institutional investors which will make an estimated outstanding equity outstanding at 31.82 crore shares

At current market capitalisation at Rs 3627 crore (considering above shares) CMP Rs 114 the share trades at PE of 10 x forward earning(2010-11) of EPS of Rs 11 per share

India cements trading at discount to its net  intrinsic value Rs 6500 crore  as detailed below

Rs 6350 crore for its 14 MTPA cement capacity at replacment price of Rs 525 crore per MTPA accounting for cross holdings

Rs 990 crore for IPL team (based on floor price of 225 million USD for new team) with a committment of Rs 40 crore a year

Rs 750 crore for other business &investments
Which put a gross valuation of Rs 9090 as reduced by Debt Rs 2590 crore and net valuation of Rs 6500 crore
as against this at current market value of Rs 114 the intrinsic value per share is Rs 204 per share which is a discount of 44 percent
 
consider buying stock at lows based not on earnings but a contra pick on value unlocking

Cement industry in INDIA

India, world's second largest cement producer after China, is the home to a number of top cement companies. As various infrastructure projects, road networks and housing projects are coming up, many of which are backed by the government, the cement industry in India is growing at a great pace these days. With the capacity of 224 Million Tones (MT), the Indian cement industry is truly big in size and hence accommodates a number of cement companies in the market. Not only that, more growth is further expected in the coming years, which will also lead to the growth of top cement companies in India.

The overall capacity increased to 224 million tonnes (MT) as on April 30, 2010, according to the Cement Manufactuer's Association from 151 million tonnes in FY2004-05 translating into a CAGR of 11% YOY. The average capacity utilisation and cement dispatches both maintained a steady growth. Total dispatches recorded 181 million tonnes during 2008-09 against 141 million tonnes in 2005-06.


Most players, large as well as small have expanded their installed capacities in the recent past. There was a capacity addition of 13.51 million tonnes in the last fiscal despite the slowdown. More than 75% of this (9.85 million tonnes) came through Greenfield projects. The remaining 3.66 million tonnes came through Brownfield projects. South India which had consumption of 54.3 million tonnes in the previous (the highest amongst all the four regions in the country) witnessed three Greenfield projects by the Madras cement, Chettinad Cement and Rain Commodities. Each has a capacity of two million tonnes.
The Indian cement industry is largely dominated by a few companies. The top 20 cement companies account for almost 70% of the total cement production of the country. 
 
( the below mentioned text / data is under updation

The cement industry comprises of 125 large cement plants with an installed capacity of 148.28 million tonnes and more than 300 mini cement plants with an estimated capacity of 11.10 million tonnes per annum)

The total cement production the country in FY09 was 210 MT. It is further expected to reach 236.16 MT in FY11 and 262.61 MT in FY12.


Let's have a look at the top 11 cement companies in India.
Name             Installed
                      Capacity
                       MTPA
ACC Limited 18.640
Gujarat Ambuja
Cements Limited  14.86
Ultratech 17.00
Grasim  14.12
India Cements 8.81
JK Cement Ltd 6.68
Jaypee Group 6.53
Century Cement 6.30
Madras Cement 5.46
Birla Corp. 5.11
JK lakshmi Cement Ltd 4.5     )

Even as analysts are sceptical of cement companies’ recent move to raise prices in the South, manufacturers of the commodity feel the hike was needed to trim losses on the back of a slump in sales in the last three months.Several cement makers increased prices by Rs15-30 per 50 kg bag this week. The price in Andhra Pradesh has gone up to Rs175 per bag. In Tamil Nadu and Karnataka, prices have been raised to Rs200-210. In Kerala, though the price hike is yet to take effect, dealers said prices will go up to Rs220-225.

Cement sales generally improve in October and continue to rise till January. With a pause till March, sales tend to improve again till June.
We estimate March-11 exit capacity of 113 mt in south India, with likely demand of 60-65 mt., thus the sustainable of price increases are difficult
It is a fact that the current month (September) always proves to be difficult for cement companies due to the rains. But, unless the companies attempt to hike the price now, it would be difficult to improve realisations during the peak sales season of October-January
The largest cement players in the south, including India Cements, UltraTech and Dalmia Cement, together have a close to 45% share in the market.

Two-fold strategy to keep sales going while maintaining realisations.
One, capacities or supplies can be cut down to sustain the price hike.
Two, a marginal roll back of the price hike is possible in the next couple of weeks to keep the effective hike at Rs10-15 per bag to time the correction with the beginning of the sales season
At present the installed capacity in the South is 91 mtpa whereas the demand is 57 mtpa for FY10.
In FY11, the demand is expected to be 62 mtpa with a capacity installation of 95mtpa. In FY12 it is expected to increase to 109 mtpa installed capacity with a consumption demand of mere 68mtpa.
We expect the utilisation to remain at same level around 60-65% till FY12,” he said. “Approximately 8-10 mtpa was being channelised from the south to both eastern and western markets, which would subside. Post the monsoons, a price hike of Rs5-10 in the West can also happen” Sankhe added.

Cement makers are also not finding the going any attractive, particularly in key markets like Andhra Pradesh, which accounts for about 15-20% of the all India cement sales. The state government, which was driving cement sales by taking up mass housing programmes, has reduced the offtake for about six months now. Similarly, monsoon too has been extremely good postponing the construction activity. The property development in general too has been sluggish in Hyderabad and also in metros like Chennai for the last one year.
As the utilisation rate is expected to be stagnant, analysts do not foresee any reason for price escalation as lower utilisation rate would make it difficult to maintain realisation rate.

source dna

List of securities eligible in pre-open session

The procedure in respect to pre open session to be held every day will be as follows The live pre-open session will be for duration of 15 minutes i.e. from 9:00 am to 9:15 am. The pre-open schedule will be as follows:

Session Time Remark

Order Entry
Period 9:00 am - 9:08 am (*)
• Order entry, Modification and Cancellation
• (*) System driven Random closure between 7th and 8th minute

Order Matching & trade Confirmation Period
9:08 am(*) – 9:12 am • (*) Order matching period will start immediately after completion of order entry period.
• Opening price determination.
• Order matching and trade confirmation.

Buffer Period 9:12 am - 9:15 am •
 Transition from pre-open to continuous trading session

Normal Market / Odd lot Market and Retail Debt Market will open for trading after closure of pre-open session at 9:15 am and available till 3:30 pm. Block Trading session will be available 35 minutes from the open of Normal Market i.e. from 9:15am – 9:50am. There is no change in the timings of closing session.

 to know about the mock trading to be held on 16.10.2010 check out the link below http://www.nseindia.com/content/circulars/cmtr16006.zip

List of securities eligible in pre-open session

SECURITY NAME

ACC LIMITED

AMBUJA CEMENTS LTD

AXIS BANK LIMITED

BAJAJ AUTO LIMITED

BHARTI AIRTEL LIMITED

BHEL

BHARAT PETROLEUM CORP LT

CAIRN INDIA LIMITED

CIPLA LTD

DLF LIMITED

DR. REDDY'S LABORATORIES

GAIL (INDIA) LTD

HCL TECHNOLOGIES LTD

HDFC LTD

HDFC BANK LTD

HERO HONDA MOTORS LTD

HINDALCO INDUSTRIES LTD

HINDUSTAN UNILEVER LTD.

ICICI BANK LTD.

INFRA. DEV. FIN. CO. LTD

INFOSYS TECHNOLOGIES LTD

ITC LTD

JINDAL STEEL & POWER LTD

JAIPRAKASH ASSOCIATES LTD

KOTAK MAHINDRA BANK LTD

LARSEN & TOUBRO LTD.

MAHINDRA & MAHINDRA LTD

MARUTI SUZUKI INDIA LTD.

NTPC LTD

OIL AND NATURAL GAS CORP.

PUNJAB NATIONAL BANK

POWER GRID CORP. LTD.

RANBAXY LABS LTD

RELIANCE COMMUNICATIONS L

RELIANCE CAPITAL LTD

RELIANCE INDUSTRIES LTD

RELIANCE INFRASTRUCTU LTD

RELIANCE POWER LTD.

STEEL AUTHORITY OF INDIA

STATE BANK OF INDIA

SESA GOA LTD

SIEMENS LTD

STERLITE INDS (IND) LTD

SUN PHARMACEUTICALS IND.

SUZLON ENERGY LIMITED

TATA MOTORS LIMITED

TATA POWER CO LTD

TATA STEEL LIMITED

TATA CONSULTANCY SERV LT

WIPRO LTD

The pre-open call auction session to start wef 18.10.2010

The National Stock Exchange and Bombay Stock Exchange india’s two premier bourses will start the pre-open session call auction wef 18.10.2010 . The mechanism will start simultaneously on both the bourses,the capital market regulator Sebi had given its green signal for the introduction of pre-open session call auction on the bourses.

In a call auction practice, participants indicate their willingness to buy or sell units of a security by placing an order for a number of units at the prevailing price before the opening of trade. The mechanism, known as ‘pre-open session call auction’, will last for 15 minutes (from 9 am to 9.15 am) and will be introduced on a pilot basis by the BSE and NSE.

The introduction of pre-open session with a call auction mechanism is expected to reduce the quantum of volatility, typically visible in the first few minutes of trade, analysts said.
Experts believe this mechanism will help retail as well as institutional investors. This system will reduce price volatility due to multiple matching of orders at a single price, better price discovery and also dilute market impact,

Another advantage of this mechanism is a fairer market especially for small, non professional investors because all trades get executed at the same price,” he added. A uniform price band of 20% will be applicable to all eligible securities during the pre-open session.

In the first 15 minutes, investors can place orders for eight minutes on the basis of which the exchanges will determine the rates at which trading will happen.
Initially the call auction session will be applicable for those stocks which are the part of Sensex and Nifty.

http://www.bseindia.com/callauction/introduction.aspx

http://www.nseindia.com/content/press/PreOpen-October2010.pdf

http://www.expressindia.com/latest-news/NSE-BSE-to-launch-pretrading-auction/694466/

http://www.in.com/videos/watchvideo-15-minute-session-may-curb-volatility-9653811.html

Suzlon for 3000MW deal worth Rs 13500 crore with Caparo

Suzlon Energy is in advanced talks with Lord Swraj Paul’s Caparo Group to set up 3,000 mw capacity wind farms over a period of six years, a deal that could bring in around $3 billion ( Rs.13500 crore)to the world’s third-largest wind turbine manufacturing company. The power plants will be developed for Caparo Energy, the London-based group’s JV with Finland’s Wartsila, and most of them are likely to be executed in India, said a senior Suzlon executive requesting anonymity. Each mega watt of wind power set up by Suzlon for Caparo Energy could fetch the company over $1 million in revenue, he said, adding that the two companies are likely to finalise the agreement this month. Suzlon makes windmills with the capacity to generate different quantities of power which are fitted with company-designed wind turbines. The product types include 2.1 mw, 1.5 mw and 1.25 mw and each of them are suited for different wind speed. The executive said that the projects will use a combination of the three different product types.

According to the discussions between the two sides Suzlon Energy will also help Caparo identify wind farm sites in India and may also help in land acquisition efforts. Caparo Energy India was set up in March this year with Wartsila, which specialises in manufacturing diesel and gas engines used for powering ships as well as for electricity generation. The Helsinki-headquartered Wartsila had revenues of 5.6 billion for 2009. The Caparo Group website says the company is a e 1 billion diversified business conglomerate.
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/news-by-industry/energy/power/Suzlon-in-talks-with-Caparo-for-power-deal/articleshow/5900381.cms
India-focused wind power generation investor Caparo Energy has joined AIM today after a £50.2m fund raising. The net proceeds of the placing at 115p a share were £46.3m. The cash will be spent on purchasing existing projects from Suzlon Energy and to provide working capital. The acquisition of further generating capacity will be funded by a combination of equity and debt. Caparo has already secured outline terms of a $101.9m lending facility from IDFC. Suzlon has granted Caparo first refusal over its projects between 50MW and 100MW in size. Suzlon will deliver up to 3,000MW of projects. In return, Suzlon will receive advances totalling up to $167.9m from Caparo Energy, payable in four instalments over a period of three years. The strategy is to acquire and develop 5,000MW of generating capacity by 2017. Caparo hopes to have taken on 3,000MW of Suzlon projects by 2016 and the rest by the following year. Indian generation capacity of 163GW is not sufficient to maintain the present level of growth and there are already blackouts. The Indian government is targeting a capacity of 342GW by 2017. Favourable tariffs, incentives and Renewable Energy Certificates, mean that the market is skewed towards wind farms. By 2030, 15% of power needs are expected to come from wind. India needs a slightly different technology to Europe because the wind speed tends to be lower. Caparo ended the first day’s trading at 115.25p a share, which values the company at £188.59m. Caparo says that it will consider paying a dividend when it has developed at least 500MW of capacity.
http://www.digitallook.com/news/3744964/Caparo_raises_50_2m_in_AIM_float.html?&username=&ac=
http://www.cityam.com/news-and-analysis/caparo-energy-raises-%C2%A3502m-fund-wind-farms-first-day-aim-dealings

SUZLON an ideal takeover target

on 22/07/2010 Sanman Holdings Pvt Ltd had Bought 1884,73 lakh or 10.80 percent share of Suzlon Energy Ltd taking the total holding to 1927,49 lakh or 11.04 percent

considering the above the promotor holding in Suzlon has gone up from 8262.68 lakh shares to 10147.41 lakh shares or from 53.05 percent to 57.49 percent even after considering the right issue of 15 : 2 shares
out of the above 5935 lakh shares were pledged which represents 58 percent promotors holding or 33.62 percent of total shares of SUZlONare pledged and any one can stake a takeover on suzlon given the holding of promotors excluding pledged holding are just 23.82 percent and bright prospects for the company

Suzlon the prospects
that it is expected to bag an order book of around 65 giga watt of wind power over period of 4-5 years
giving a potential to grow at pace of 13000 MW per year over five years
with average revenue potential of Rs. 62000 crore and EBIDTA of Rs 10525 crore per year over period of five year since 2011-12
the present order book (as on August 2010) worth Rs 22500 crore for 4500 MW is likely to post a EBIDTA of Rs 3938 crore

for next four year suzlon is said to have targeting wind power market in

CHINA 130-145 giga watt
India 30-35 giga watt
South Africa & Brazil 25-30 of giga watt of wind power

the data compiled from following video link
http://edition.cnn.com/video/#/video/business/2010/09/15/intv.suzulon.energy.india.china.cnn?iref=allsearch

http://www.suzlon.com/TRT_LEED_Speech.pdf

http://in.reuters.com/news/video/story?videoId=163755691&videoChannel=117521

http://in.reuters.com/article/idINIndia-51920020101004

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE68Q2S320100927

http://www.silobreaker.com/suzlon-crosses-5000-mw-of-wind-power-installations-in-india-5_2263745588761722916

http://www.reuters.com/news/video?videoChannel=2602&videoId=163755691

Where will you find Nifty stock at 6000

An attempt is made to identify the high flyer should Nifty be able to scale 6000 mark

by 15 October 2010. This trend has a probability of 0.86

Scrip.........Up Rs ..Target...Baseline
SUZLON 13 67 49
DLF 70 437 316
JPASSOCIAT23 144 109
UNITECH 16 102 70
MARUTI 216 1699 1329
STER 29 201 155
BHARTIARTL 59 426 321
NTPC 34 243 187
POWERGRID 16 121 95
SAIL 31 236 185
GAIL 72 551 432
JINDALSTEL 99 791 626
HEROHONDA 278 2128 1627
BHEL 347 2798 2217
LT 297 2316 1806
TATAPOWER 149 1476 1193
BPCL 109 899 711
HCLTECH 63 485 374
CIPLA 47 363 286
IDEA 10 87 69
HINDUNILVR 39 355 276
KOTAKBANK 61 546 435
HINDALCO 24 215 172
IDFC 26 233 178
WIPRO 56 502 399
ACC 127 1139 915

RELCAPITAL 99 913 729
PNB 159 1443 1151
ONGC 179 1618 1287
TATAMOTORS 134 1205 967
AXISBANK 188 1691 1343
ICICIBANK 139 1251 990
SBIN 361 3499 2842
HDFCBANK 311 2800 2191
INFOSYSTCH 379 3422 2724
ABB 109 991 793
HDFC 91 820 657
SUNPHARMA 240 2163 1712
TCS 116 1046 842
SIEMENS 98 884 711
M&M 86 776 623
RELIANCE 125 1128 903
RANBAXY 71 642 510
CAIRN 41 371 297

ITC 22 201 161
AMBUJACEM 16 162 130
TATASTEEL 69 699 568
RPOWER 14 175 143
Evaluate independantly before investing in any of the above scrips

Baseline refers to median price should an correction occurs

2010VP22 TCFC Limited

TCFC Limited (BSE 532284) , an investment company former from erstwhile Twentieth Century Finance Company Limited wherein Promotors hold 64.9 pc
http://www.bseindia.com/bseplus/StockReach/AdvanceStockReach.aspx?scripcode=532284

At CMP of  Rs 31.35 the Market capitalisation is just Rs 32.86 crore
As against the book value of Rs 65 the company owns liquid holding in equity and money mutual funds worth 21.83 cr and 48.90 crore respectively which constitutes 109 % of book value

Further there is hidden asset of 75000 shares of CARE will be worth at least Rs 1525 per share (CRISIL is valued Rs 6000 a share) valuing it Rs. 11.43 crore

http://www.indiainfoline.com/Markets/News/Sundaram-Finance-arm-sells-stake-in-CARE/4916308320

http://profit.ndtv.com/news/show/sundaram-finance-arm-sells-stake-in-care-for-rs-675-mln-92268

So as against the market value of investment worth  Rs 81 crore the market capitalisation at Rs 31.35 is trading at discount of 59.4 percent

Risky Picks 01 Caution Advised

In Risky pick we analyse a company in which
the mangement is not investor friendly or not acting in bonafide interest of investor community but where financial results are good or better future prospects are projected and to an extent achieved too

while investing in such company extreme caution is advised so as to reduce the risk of loss of capital. personally i do not invest more than 10 percent portfolio in such scrips

RISKY PICK 01

Compact Disc BSE: 526141 

http://www.compactdisc.co.in/
http://www.bseindia.com/bseplus/StockReach/AdvanceStockReach.aspx?scripcode=526141

good  results year after year Rs 53 crore profit expected for 2010-11 as per management estimate
(in Management Discussion and analysis)

Book value Rs 108 FV Rs 10

Shares outstanding 0.957 lakh of Rs 10 each

Analysis of 2009-10 Financials
-------------------------------
Turnover Rs 238 per share growth of 20 pc

EBIDTA Rs 50.44 per share growth of 25 pc

NProfit Rs 49.40 per share growth of 25 pc

Market Capital Rs 64.9 crore and at Rs 64.40

the PE is 1.33 PBV 0.60

Dividend @Rs 2 for 2008-09 with record date Sep 2009 announced that it will be declared through EGM held on 30.08.2010 thereafter no announcement as to conduct of EGM
Dividend @Rs 2 for 2009-10 with record date 17 Sep 2010 announced that will be declared through AGM to be held on 30.09.2010 thereafter no announcement as to conduct of AGM

NEWS FLOW

Company has secretively announced at moneycontrol that it is going to raise Rs 240 crore through FPO / QIB the same is not included as a part of AGM or announced in exchanges on 14 sept 2010
http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/ipoupcomingissues/compactdiscaimstoraisers240crviafpope_484459.html.

Company management announced that its subsidiary Premier Brands Pvt Ltd has been appointed as the main licensee for merchandising programme of the Commonwealth Games into branding of licensing and merchandising business. which will clock a revenue of roughly Rs 300 crore
http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/expect-rs-300crcwealth-games-order-compact-disc_471076.html

will Compact Disc break the record created by Pentamedia graphics during 2000
in market capitalisation growth and erosion subsequenlty


If there are any shareholder of Compact Disc kindly post their experience in this counter